Sunday, December 4, 2011

The Rise of Newt

The Republican primaries has been a constant shift in power. Those whose campaigns were one surging such as Rick Perry, Hermain Cain, and Michele Bachmann are now just struggling to keep their heads above water. The only potential candidate who is a realistic victor for the party's nominee who has run a consistent strong campaign has been Mitt Romney. With the departure of Herman Cain it would seem that Romney would now be a shoe-in for the Republican nomination. Once again, this race has taken an unexpected turn and the race is still very much up for grabs. 

Seasoned Republican Newt Gingrich who has held numerous political offices such as being the speaker of the House of Representatives, over the course of many decades and has appeared on Fox News countless times is beginning to emerge as Romney's biggest competition in the race. Back in late September, Gingrich finished sixth out of eight in the Florida Straw Poll with only 8.4% of the vote. Only John Huntsman and Michele Bachmann trailed him. It seemed as if the 68-year-old Gingrich time had passed many years ago and that his chances of representing the Republican Party in the 2012 election were slim to none. But with Cain's departure from the race, Gingrich has been given a window of opportunity that many people thought was close to impossible for him to ever obtain. The latest Des Moines Register Poll reveals that the former House Speaker has won the support of 25% of the 401 probable Republican caucus-goers. This marks a huge change from his 7% that he claimed back in October. Gingrich is very confident about his chances of winning the nomination as well. Last week he told ABC news that "It's very hard to not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high that I'm going to be the nominee."

Unlike Cain, some of Gingrich's decisions years ago are proving to benefit him in the long-run. Gingrich and Cain have a relationship that goes back to his days at the Speaker of the House in which he appointed Cain to the National Commission on Economic Growth and Tax Reform Commission over a decade ago in 1996. One of Cain's top advisers says that he will endorse one of his ex-rivals before the January 3rd caucus', and that person will most likely be Gingrich. This endorsement would give Gingrich's campaign very strong momentum due to the large amount of news coverage it would result in.

However, his recent surge does not mean that Gingrich has just had the nomination handed to him on a silver platter. Although some polls show that many Republicans are distrustful of the front runner Mitt Romney due to his tendency to flip-flop and his left-leaning positions on health care insurance and abortion, opinion polls consistently show that Romney has a far better chance of beating Obama in the election that matters: Obama leads Romney by only two percent while he leads Gingrich by 12%. It is also plausible that his past might turn out to haunt him as well due to his vulnerability to being criticized as being a Washington insider during his Congressional days as well as taking money as a political consultant for big businesses. He also might suffer the same fate as his likely biggest future endorsement Cain did due to his inability to be faithful man in two of his three marriages. Opponents such as Ron Paul who has a very strong base although a long-shot for the nomination as well as Michele Bachmann have voiced their criticism towards him in the past. Despite this adversity, Gingrich is Romney's biggest competition.


Links used:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/04/newt-gingrich-gains-republican-race?newsfeed=true

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69742.html

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/24/final-poll-results/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/newt-gingrich-leads-in-new-iowa-poll/2011/12/03/gIQARyz9PO_blog.html

The Cain Train Is Oficially Derailed


The race for the Republican Party's nomination has been an intriguing, suspenseful, and controversial battle thus far. Candidates who have entered the race from the starting point that were seen to have no shot in being a contender at all have surged in the polls. Former front runners have have had devastating demises such as Rick Perry once it was uncovered that his hunting ranch in rural Texas had a rock in front of the entrance with a racial slur spray-painted on it. Current candidates such as Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are trying to accomplish what they have tried and failed to do throughout their career, while others such as Herman Cain are just trying to establish their presence in the political arena.
This week, one of the candidates, Herman Cain, who was at one point in the race seen as a child among adults as well as a serious contender for the nomination has suspended his campaign. As a black man in the "white man's party" with minimal political experience, it was very hard for him to be taken seriously at first. However, at a time when out economy is in shambles, his resume that has business triumphs in his time as the CEO of Godfather's Pizza Company influenced many to believe that he is capable returning our economy to its former prosperity. At the end of the third quarter, his campaign had $1.3 million on hand and $675,000 in debts. However, his catchy 9-9-9 plan plan fueled the once overwhelming amount of enthusiasm that thousands of staunch Republicans  from across the nation once had for his campaign. As a result, his campaign reported in November that they had raised over $9 million in just six weeks.



However, he has been proven to a magnet to controversy and over the course of many debates he has had trouble keeping his big mouth shut. Over the past month, it has been revealed that Cain has a self-destructive Achilles Heel which has led his past to haunt him and sabotage his campaign: women. It has been brought to the public's attention that four women have accused Cain engaging in inappropriate sexual advances and two of them have come forward. Although the validity of these accusations is still questionable, the fact of the matter is that four different women have accused him of the same crime. Whether or not these accusations are true, many would agree that it is unlikely that Cain has remained faithful to his wife throughout their marriage. This week, it seems to have become very clear that Cain most likely has fooled around behind his wife's back. It has been leaked to the public that Cain had a 13-year affair with a single mother from Georgia named Ginger White. She had her first television interview on this issue with ABC's George Stephanopolous in which she described the affair as being "very casual." Unlike his other accusers, White can walk-the-walk as well as talk-the-talk. She has shown to numerous reported and authority figured her phone bill which includes over 60 texts and calls from Cain over the past four months. As a result, the inference man by many of his former supporters seems to be obvious: we do not want another Lewinsky-type scandal in the White House!
This week Cain officially suspended  his campaign and he blamed the media for putting a negative spin on his campaign. Although they did without a doubt played a role in his demise, he still put himself in vulnerable positions years ago whether or not these allegations are true or not. Also, he still made insensitive remarks in regards to immigration and abortion. In other words, Cain crossed the line which is something the media is not responsible for but is responsible for exploiting it. However, Cain has left his mark on the race. As his former opponent Michele Bachman said, "he brought a really important, exciting, energetic voice to the race, and I think a lot of people are going to be very sorry to see him go."
Links used:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/cains-exit-gives-him-financial-flexibility/2011/12/04/gIQAnUyfSO_story.html


http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/03/opinion/cupp-cain-candidacy/index.html

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ginger-white-good-morning-america-alleged-affair-herman-cain-fit-president-article-1.984387